Holyrood 2026 finale- a look at marginal seats

 

 

Here, in the last of our election guides before Polling Day tomorrow (May 7th), we look at a handful of seats, where every vote may impact the final outcome.

 

Some members might not be minded to vote, for various reasons.

 

Some seats are also so ‘given’ that it may feel pointless to attend the polling station on a busy day.

 

However, these are seats are where margins are comparatively slender.

 

Angus North and Mearns

 

 

This has traditionally been a seat with a two-way tussle between the SNP and Conservatives. In 2021, Mairi Gougeon (pictured above) defeated Braden Davy with a 3509 majority, following on from her victory in 2016.

 

However, the former Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs, Land Reform and Islands is not seeking re-election this time around and both the SNP and the Conservatives, in particular, will be hoping to get the vote out in this key seat.

 

Aberdeen South and North Kincardine

 

Again, a two-way fight between SNP and the Conservatives, there is a lot of interest in this seat. Audrey Nicol (SNP) was supportive of rural workers in the last Parliament but will step down this time. Her majority over Conservative Liam Kerr in 2021 was 1671 votes – a reduced majority from the 2016 election.

 

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn will contest this for SNP this time around, with Kerr- also supportive of rural workers- returning again for the Conservatives.

 

Galloway and West Dumfries

 

 

In 2021, this seat was a two-way contest between two members of the Rural Affairs Committee, Convener Finlay Carson (Cons) and Emma Harper (SNP, pictured above).

 

In the last Parliament, both candidates were supportive of rural workers. Carson’s 2635 majority meant he took the constituency seat while Harper again gained a list berth for South Scotland (she assumed this at the 2016 election).

 

Both are running again but Reform has targeted this seat as one where they could make gains so this one has the potential to be hot.

 

East Lothian

This seat is a two-way battle of a different kind, this time between SNP and Labour. A former Labour seat, it swung to the SNP at the last election when Paul McLennan (SNP) won with a 1179 majority from Labour’s Martin Whitfield.

 

Both parties will see this as winnable and will be desperate to mobilise their vote.

 

Dumbarton

 

When it comes to fine margins, the Dumbarton seat is a melting pot.

 

Labour and the SNP will throw everything at this, with a majority of only 109 votes in 2016 and 1483 in 2021. Jackie Baillie (Labour) is the only MSP to have held this seat since Holyrood first convened and will run again this time. The SNP will see Dumbarton as a potential gain, if voters turned off by Labour’s performance at Westminster translate that into a form of protest, here.

 

Ayr

 

 

Siobhian Brown (SNP, pictured above), who has found herself thrust into the wildfire debates in recent times as Community Safety Minister, pulled off a major shock in this seat in 2021, taking the constituency vote by 170 votes from John Scott (Conservatives).

 

Again, this one will be tight and a key battleground in Holyrood 2026.

 

*These guides are meant for information purposes. They are not endorsements of any individual candidate or party by the SGA. Voting is entirely down to individual preference/conscience.

 

Thank you to all candidates who have engaged with the SGA ahead of the Election.

 

We hope our guides have provided some useful information for members.

 

 

 

 

 

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