Guest writer Victor Clements questions figures banded about at the recent session on deer at the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee
Introduction
I am not usually one for parliamentary deer debates, but in the 2-3 minutes it took for me to switch off the round table discussion before the Rural Affairs & Islands committee on Holyrood TV on 29th January, Duncan Orr- Ewing of RSPB Scotland and the Scottish Environment LINK Deer Taskforce provided us with the open door that people need to push back on with the proposals being taken forwards for deer management at the moment.
You should never, ever open an evidence session before such a committee by quoting statistics that are demonstrably untrue.
To be clear, I work as a native woodland advisor, and have had an interest in these matters for almost 40 years now. I have an environmental interest, and I like to think, a track record. I used to sit on the Deer taskforce with Duncan. Where we diverge is how environmental improvement can be achieved with regards to deer. My view is that we should build capacity and keep people living and working in the countryside who have a broad range of skills.
If we can do that, we can deliver production and environment, and everything will be much more sustainable and not reliant on public subsidy. The current situation that we have had to endure since the Deer Working Group report in 2020 undermines confidence and deters investment in staff development, equipment and deer management planning. Duncan believes we should have a statutory system with the government in charge, as if they are capable of doing any of these things.
Duncan claimed in evidence that Scotland’s deer population (now estimated at 1 million) had doubled in the last 20 years ie: from about 2005 or thereabouts.
Deer Population Statistics
Let us assume for the sake of argument that the 1 million deer figure is correct, and to avoid any accusations of picking and choosing statistics, let’s go with those quoted by the Deer Working Group report.
It was the estimate of 300,000 red deer in Scotland in 1990 that piqued my interest as a student, 10 percent of which were supposedly in woodland, with 270,000 on the open hill. The estimates for other species at the time were 200,000 roe deer, about 10,000 sika deer and 1000/2000 fallow deer. So around 500,000 deer in Scotland 35 years ago, according to our understanding at the time. We can say that deer numbers have doubled since then, but note the later caveat on that.
It is very likely that we were under-estimating the numbers we had in 1990.
By 1995, deer numbers across a number of commentators, some of whom quoted each other as references, were estimated at circa 347,000 red deer, 350,000 roe deer, and still 10,000 sika and 2000 fallow. That is about 710,000 in total. The open hill red deer figures came from counts, but the others, especially the roe deer, were finger-in-the-air stuff, looking at the presence/ distribution of each species, checking the culls and multiplying up from that to give an estimate. These guesstimates were educated ones, and there was consensus around these approximate numbers. The big increase was with roe deer, with a lesser increase in red deer, a proportion of which will be in woodland, but how many, it doesn’t say.
By 2016, an SNH report said there were up to 750,000 deer in Scotland, not that many more than twenty years before, but an increase nonetheless. It does not say where the increase arises.
Going back to Duncan's comment about the deer population 20 years ago ie: 2005. There was no assessment of numbers made around that time, but if there was 710,000 in 1995, and 750,000 in 2016, and 2005 is halfway in between, let us say there were 730,000 deer in Scotland in 2005. 730,000 X 2 is a lot more than the 1 million deer we might have today, so our deer population has not doubled in the last 20 years, or anything like.
By 2018, I had done my own bit of research for the Association of Deer Management Groups (ADMG), collating all the most recent deer counts across the open hill range in Scotland, the majority of which were agency funded helicopter counts. I got circa 243,000 red deer on the open hill, which was fewer than 1990. So, a 50% increase through to 750,000 deer in 2016 could only have arisen because of an increase in deer in the lowlands, or in forestry. The 50% increase might have been real, or it might simply have been because of a better understanding of what other deer we had and where.
The uplift to 1 million deer came about through some retrospective population modelling which assumed that only around 40 percent of roe deer culls where actually being reported, and also taking better account of road accidents, which also involved mostly roe deer.
The consequence of this has been that the estimate of roe deer in Scotland has increased very significantly, giving us 1 million total deer in Scotland, but largely because the method of calculation has been changed. If we applied this change in methodology to earlier datasets, then we would have undoubtedly have had larger estimates of deer at previous counts. The 1995 estimate of 710,000 may well have been close to 1 million as well.
Increasing or no?
I am confident that our deer population in Scotland is increasing, and the 1 million may even be an under-estimate. There are numerous reasons:
I know from St Kilda that despite the peaks and troughs of population cycles, the number of Soay sheep has increased over 60 years or so, simply because the habitat can sustain more now. The same will apply to deer. So, if we have better quality habitat, capable of sustaining more deer, we should not be surprised if there are more deer.
As an example, I hope to go and see a 240 acre farm shortly in Lanarkshire, where Nature Scot recently counted 18 roe deer and 17 red deer by drone. The observant among you will note that 240 acres is almost exactly 100 ha, or 1 sq km. So, in a random 1 km square in our lowlands, we have 35 deer per sq km, at least 3 X higher than what we have in the Highlands. If this is in any way representative, then we are undoubtedly past 1 million deer.
I am happy to be the first to suggest that. We have these numbers of deer because the habitat there can sustain them, and because the Scottish Governments and our NGOs are forever complaining about the Highlands, they have totally lost sight of problems in the lowlands, which are increasing at a much faster rate.
Back to the argument
Whatever way you look at it, the evidence we have does not give credence to the suggestion that our deer population has doubled since 2005. It may have increased, but at least part of the increase is down to a different population assessment method. This little white lie may seem appropriate as part of a campaigning effort, but it is not appropriate in front of a Holyrood committee for your opening gambit, and Duncan should have been pulled up on it right away.
While our hidden deer population in forestry and in the lowlands may be difficult to quantify, we do know that our hill red deer population is almost certainly smaller now than it was in 1990. The evidence we have reinforces this point. So, why do Duncan and others like to put a picture of a red stag on the mountain on all material to do with deer management in Scotland? And when they agitate for interventions, why do they do it in the uplands, and not in the lowlands?
And on his secondary point about 2 deer per sq km being the new target for native woodlands, does he not realise that because most native woods are less than 100 ha, that any two deer standing together would then be illegal? How realistic is that, especially when the greater area of native woods is in the lowlands where 75% of deer actually are?
If we are to improve deer management in Scotland, and achieve environmental objectives, then any new approach needs to be based in the reality of what is in front of us. An unreliable witness is no good to anyone if they are suggesting something else. That he did suggest something else is there for all to see.
Victor Clements is a native woodland advisor working in Highland Perthshire. He advises a number of deer management groups, having first become interested in deer management statistics on leaving university in 1990.